Battle Hardened: Barcelona - Kano, Dracai of Aether (LL)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Buddensiek

49th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Rosenkrans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Williams (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Paul Mirande (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Digl Dixon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 67:33

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

50:50

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Henri Schlüter (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.69
R4	LL	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	LL	Lexi, Livewire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R7	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.94
R9	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Tim McCarthy

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Brian Mc Donagh (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Przemyslaw Staniszewski (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Unknown)

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.04
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Simon Otterburg

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Valentin Varga (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Henning Beywl (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Piotr Przyczyna

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Opalski (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.