Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
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dropped • 4-1-0
0%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Maciej Janik (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.