Calling: Auckland - Aurora, Emissary of Lightning (Sealed)

Aurora, Emissary of Lightning

29 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Dodd

2nd • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Ng (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ben Kent (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matt Rogers (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Will Evans (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Keegan Walls (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dennis Zhang

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Damian Torwick (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Solomon (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Will Evans (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Louis Shum (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Shaun Leow

13th • 6-1-0

71%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Darge (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Digl Dixon (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Marko Zutic (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Edward Kim (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Rowan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Edward Kim

3rd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sage Walker (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Marko Zutic (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Freeman Monika (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nik Malev (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ian Chu (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Zak Murray (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

10th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ross Newson (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Lester (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Maxwell (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Holland (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Keegan Walls (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Rogers

20th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Liam Anderson (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Troy Wilson (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ian Chu (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Williams (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Rowan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Matthew Wakelin

22nd • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Barlow (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ken Russell (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs David Rowley (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sam Davison

32nd • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Rowan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tom Hartley (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Adam Little (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Keegan Walls

38th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Pirlea (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marko Zutic (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Justin Cu (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marie Watson

30th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Stepan Sopin (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Lester (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dan Griffin (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Rowley

37th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Balmes (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Stepan Sopin (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Damian Torwick (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Wakelin (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arran Beamsley

41st • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Shum (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Lester (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Conor Armstrong (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ben Clarke (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Will Evans (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Conor Armstrong

43rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Holland (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ben Clarke (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Arran Beamsley (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ben Kent (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andrei Pirlea (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Donald Tang

44th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Angus Schuler (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Holland (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Rowan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Barlow (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Maxwell (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Liam Fisher (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ethan Holland

45th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Conor Armstrong (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Donald Tang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Liam Anderson (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Little (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Troy Wilson

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Piper Allen (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Rob Davenport (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Ben Clarke (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Freeman Monika

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Duncan Macdonald (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Kim (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Andrei Pirlea (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Shamal Singh (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Cassandra Hancock (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kelvin Clarke

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sean Stanley (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs James Wakefield (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Little (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Karel Doorman (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Balmes (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Maxwell (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Barak Abitbol (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Taine Markley

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Liam Fisher (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nik Malev (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Henry Moore (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Shum (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Damian Torwick (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ettie Davies

dropped • 2-3-2

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrei Pirlea (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Nik Malev (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs James Wakefield (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs Angus Schuler (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Smithy Sarah (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R6	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lynnette Nattrass

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nik Malev (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrei Pirlea (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Philip Nagle (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Stepan Sopin (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ben Kent

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lachlan Maddaford (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brodie Mickleson (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Collins (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Conor Armstrong (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Potini

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Chu (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ken Russell (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Deanna Packwood

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bradley Cain (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Vincent Ng

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Moore (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jaden De-Arth

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Angus Schuler (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Ng (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jarrad West

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dennie So (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Brake

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Will Evans (Zyggy) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lachlan Maddaford (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zyggy	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

John Wardan

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ross Newson (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.