Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at National Championship 2025 - Brunei
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Wong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs fayyadh Salleh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Danial Azwar (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lim Kok Chien (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Fadhil Majid (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.