Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025 - Brunei
Katsu, the Wanderer
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zul Hakimin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jerrard Pang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Loss vs Fadhil Majid (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jerrard Pang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Danial Azwar (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.