Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Croatia
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Filip Grozdanovic (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sven Slivar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.