World Championship Qualifier 2025 - France - Scurv, Stowaway (Sealed)

Scurv, Stowaway

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Nennig

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ulysse Bousquet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mallaury BEDIN (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ewan Dajnak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mélusine Haegeman (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Antonin Poubeau (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Yoann Chaussinand

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yohann Jouanny (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Bollier (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Christophe Jourdan (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs jean-baptiste debry--mournetas (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Aurélien Cordier (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Antoine Cordier (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Clément Maillet

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alexis Planchenault (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Duruy (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Karl Cleuziou (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Lucas Saillour

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Simon Mercier (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Joris Masson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Antonin Poubeau (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Philippe Milot

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mélusine Haegeman (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Jacqueline (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.