Gravy Bones at UK Nationals - Sunday 11:00 Am World

Gravy Bones

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob Catton

1st • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

7.6

Diff

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs David Dyson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs James Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

7.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	2.03
R8	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	2.55
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00

James Clark

2nd • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs David Calf (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Paul Farnell (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	2.03
R8	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	2.32
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emlyn Ingram

5th • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Farnell (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.