Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship 2025 - Hungary
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bence Kustra (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Krisztiàn Lajkò (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Beni Balazsi (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.