Battle Hardened: Christchurch 2025 - Arakni, Web of Deceit (Draft)

Arakni, Web of Deceit

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Marshall

1st • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

7.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs James Gilchrist (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09
R8	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.39
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00

Caleb Sinclair

2nd • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

5.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs David Rowley (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Rowley

3rd • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Adrienne Morales ()

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft		50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.50
R8	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Elliott Nichols

5th • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.