Battle Hardened: Melbourne 2023 - Teklovossen (Draft)

Teklovossen

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eugene C

2nd • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

7.3

Diff

25:75

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Vincent Lim (Teklovossen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Maxx Nitro	25%	Win	✗	0.75	4.67
R8	Draft	Teklovossen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67
R9	Draft	Maxx Nitro	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Vincent Lim

3rd • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

7.0

Diff

25:75

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Maxx Nitro	25%	Win	✗	0.75	7.00
R8	Draft	Teklovossen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Baines

5th • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Dash, Database	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Zachary Gardiner

5th • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R7	Draft	Maxx Nitro	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.