National Championship 2026 - Latvia - Arakni, Marionette (CC) - FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vitalik Steckis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kristiāns Kokars (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jurgis Krikis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maksims Sokolovs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raitis Zdanovskis (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.