Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026 - Iceland
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
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10th • 2-1-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hlynur Kristjánsson (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ísak thomas Birgisson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.