Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026 - Slovenia
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Marko Leben (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.