World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Canada - Marlynn (Draft)

Marlynn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Dreisziger

3rd • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Levstein (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	4.50
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Isaak Krut

3rd • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	4.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

David Wadley

5th • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Levstein

5th • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.