Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jakub Bystřický

5th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Knýbel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.97
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alan Stehlík

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dolejš (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jachym Flidr

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matej Sadloň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Šídlo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Martin Knýbel

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michal Řezníček (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Inlé Kratochvílů (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.