Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Slovenia
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tilen Blazinšek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jakob Justin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.