World Championship Qualifier - Finland (Blitz) - Kayo (Blitz)

Kayo

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Juha Saarnilampi

1st • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Rene Aho (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ville Schalin (Enigma, New Moon) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio) - Expected: 45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Krister Lindroos (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Mika Vainio (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Krister Lindroos (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Enigma, New Moon	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.63
R6	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matti Salmi

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jiahao Chen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Michael Captain (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Arakni	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rene Aho

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Hyttinen (Enigma, New Moon) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Otso Somerla (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Enigma, New Moon	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.