Zen at Battle Hardened: Tokyo

Zen

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vincent Lim

2nd • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

6.1

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Ji Timm Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Mark Johnson (Zen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Nuu) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.48	2.80
R10	Draft	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Mark Johnson

3rd • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Hayden Dale (Zen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Zen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	4.50
R10	Draft	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Torpong Juntree

3rd • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

7.9

Diff

30:70

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Roger Bodee (Enigma) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Nuu) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Enigma	30%	Win	✗	0.70	7.86
R10	Draft	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Hayden Dale

5th • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Zen) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.