Kayo at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Kayo

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stefan Karlsson

2nd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Colin Li (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Lk Sing (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Teddy Tai

5th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Isaac Lee

9th • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Colin Li

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.