Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Hungary
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
3.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zsigmond Komondi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tamás Somoskövi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Botond Szujó (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Domonkos Kiss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.