Michael Davies — Azalea, Ace in the Hole

Michael Davies

Azalea, Ace in the Hole · Classic Constructed

10-15

Record

40.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

80%

Meta

-2.7

Perf Δ

12.4

Surprise

4.8

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Calling: London

Calling • April 12-13, 2025 • dropped • 4-3

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Márton Kovács (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs René Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Toni Savolainen (Aurora, Shooting Star)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024

Pro Tour • July 26-28, 2024 • dropped • 0-4

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Battle Hardened: Liverpool

Battle Hardened • February 9-11, 2024 • 55th • 3-5

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Calf (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Cookman (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Viktor Sojka (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robin Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Unknown)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Unknown)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Calling: Birmingham 2023

Calling • July 29-30, 2023 • dropped • 3-3

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Unknown	2	2	50%	4
Aurora, Shooting Star	1	1	50%	2
Briar, Warden of Thorns	1	1	50%	2
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	0	2	0%	2
Fang, Dracai of Blades	1	1	50%	2
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	1	1	50%	2
Betsy, Skin in the Game	1	0	100%	1
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	0	1	0%	1
Dromai, Ash Artist	0	1	0%	1
Kassai of the Golden Sand	0	1	0%	1
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	1	0	100%	1
Prism, Awakener of Sol	0	1	0%	1
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	0	1	0%	1
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	1	0	100%	1
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	0	1	0%	1
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	1	0	100%	1
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	0	1	0%	1