Lucas Barding — Arakni, Marionette

Lucas Barding

Arakni, Marionette · Classic Constructed

18-15

Record

54.5%

Win %

Events

Rounds

70%

Meta

+1.4

Perf Δ

15.3

Surprise

8.5

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Pro Tour • July 17th-19th, 2026 • dropped • 3-3

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Catton (Arakni, Marionette)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dominique JABES (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.90
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Battle Hardened Chicago 2025

Battle Hardened • September 6th, 2025 • 24th • 5-3

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O)

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.53
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Battle Hardened • August 17th, 2025 • dropped • 3-2

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarron Idleman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.48
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025

Battle Hardened • February 2, 2025 • 22nd • 4-3

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Payne Ummerteskee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed

Calling • January 31-February 1, 2025 • dropped • 3-4

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Viserai, Rune Blood)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Dash I/O	4	0	100%	4
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	2	1	67%	3
Fang, Dracai of Blades	2	1	67%	3
Ira, Scarlet Revenger	2	1	67%	3
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	0	3	0%	3
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	1	1	50%	2
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	0	2	0%	2
Viserai, Rune Blood	2	0	100%	2
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	0	2	0%	2
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	0	1	0%	1
Arakni, Marionette	1	0	100%	1
Aurora, Shooting Star	0	1	0%	1
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	0	1	0%	1
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	1	0	100%	1
Prism, Awakener of Sol	1	0	100%	1
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	1	0	100%	1
Valda, Seismic Impact	1	0	100%	1
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	0	1	0%	1