Alan Rogers — Kano, Dracai of Aether

Alan Rogers

Kano, Dracai of Aether · Classic Constructed

17-16

Record

51.5%

Win %

Events

Rounds

76%

Meta

-0.4

Perf Δ

14.1

Surprise

8.4

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Calling: Seattle

Calling • December 13th-14th, 2025 • dropped • 4-3

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Will Prater (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong)

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

World Championship: Philadelphia 2025

World Championship • November 14th-16th, 2025 • dropped • 3-2

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Battle Hardened • August 23rd, 2025 • dropped • 1-2

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Calling: Singapore 2025

Calling • July 19th-20th, 2025 • dropped • 2-3

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Ooi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryan Huang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phan Quan (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Pro Tour: Singapore 2025

Pro Tour • July 18-20, 2025 • dropped • 3-2

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Zimmer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Rogers (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philippe Cabero (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Battle Hardened • June 8th, 2025 • dropped • 1-2

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Arakni, Marionette)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

US National Championship 2025

National Championship • June 6th-8th, 2025 • dropped • 3-2

80%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendan Klempa (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	2	2	50%	4
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	2	1	67%	3
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	1	2	33%	3
Kassai of the Golden Sand	3	0	100%	3
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	1	2	33%	3
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	2	1	67%	3
Arakni, Marionette	1	1	50%	2
Dorinthea Ironsong	1	1	50%	2
Prism, Awakener of Sol	0	2	0%	2
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	2	0	100%	2
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	1	0	100%	1
Ira, Scarlet Revenger	0	1	0%	1
Kano, Dracai of Aether	0	1	0%	1
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	1	0	100%	1
Puffin, Hightail	0	1	0%	1
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	0	1	0%	1