Bird Cabrera — Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

Bird Cabrera

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry · Classic Constructed

23-12

Record

65.7%

Win %

Events

Rounds

69%

Meta

+3.6

Perf Δ

15.5

Surprise

12.6

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed

Calling • January 31-February 1, 2025 • dropped • 3-4

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Battle Hardened Houston: 2024

Battle Hardened • December 7, 2024 • 18th • 5-2

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ross Fontana (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood)

100:0

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Walker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.18
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024

Pro Tour • July 26-28, 2024 • 30th • 7-1

75%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

5.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Mirande (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Dyck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Pennec (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs João Gomes (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.53	1.48
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.91
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.98
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.06

Battle Hardened: Minneapolis

Battle Hardened • June 16, 2024 • dropped • 3-2

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.21
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

United States National Championship 2024

National Championship • June 14-16, 2024 • 101st • 5-3

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire)

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.21
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.91
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.88

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Nuu, Alluring Desire	7	1	88%	8
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	3	3	50%	6
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	3	1	75%	4
Viserai, Rune Blood	1	2	33%	3
Prism, Awakener of Sol	1	1	50%	2
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	1	1	50%	2
Aurora, Shooting Star	0	1	0%	1
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	0	100%	1
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	1	0	100%	1
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	0	1	0%	1
Dorinthea Ironsong	1	0	100%	1
Fang, Dracai of Blades	0	1	0%	1
Kano, Dracai of Aether	1	0	100%	1
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	1	0	100%	1
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	1	0	100%	1
Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	1	0	100%	1