Lucas Oswald — Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Lucas Oswald

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose · Classic Constructed

21-7

Record

75.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

64%

Meta

+6.1

Perf Δ

12.4

Surprise

16.4

Difficulty

Top 8

Top 8 United States National Championship United States '25

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

World Championship: Philadelphia 2025

World Championship • November 14th-16th, 2025 • 18th • 7-2

56%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Tellez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Dash I/O)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O)

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.94
R14	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.43
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.03

Pro Tour: Singapore 2025

Pro Tour • July 18-20, 2025 • 57th • 5-4

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O)

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.03
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.00
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.09
R13	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.85
R15	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

US National Championship 2025

National Championship • June 6th-8th, 2025 • 5th • 9-1

60%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

7.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josef Mendez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

30:70

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.76	2.47
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.71
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.76
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.70
R16	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Dash I/O	2	2	50%	4
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	4	0	100%	4
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	2	1	67%	3
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	2	1	67%	3
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	1	50%	2
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	2	0	100%	2
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	2	0	100%	2
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	2	0	100%	2
Arakni, Huntsman	0	1	0%	1
Kassai of the Golden Sand	1	0	100%	1
Nuu, Alluring Desire	1	0	100%	1
Prism, Awakener of Sol	0	1	0%	1
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	1	0	100%	1
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	1	0	100%	1