Lucas Dutailly — Briar

Lucas Dutailly

Briar · Silver Age

14-13

Record

51.9%

Win %

Events

Rounds

70%

Meta

-0.3

Perf Δ

13.1

Surprise

8.8

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026

Showdown • April 12th, 2026 • dropped • 5-3

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Feng (Florian)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026

Pro Tour • April 10th-12th, 2026 • 52nd • 3-3

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze)

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Ira, Crimson Haze)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Emily Froese (Enigma)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano)

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.82	2.93
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.22
R10	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Showdown: London 2026

Showdown • February 8th, 2026 • dropped • 1-3

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Calling: London 2026

Calling • February 7th-8th, 2026 • dropped • 5-4

44%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Fejer (Rhinar)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Web of Deceit)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Ira, Crimson Haze	4	3	57%	7
Bravo, Flattering Showman	1	2	33%	3
Briar	0	2	0%	2
Enigma	2	0	100%	2
Fai	0	2	0%	2
Kano	0	2	0%	2
Oldhim	1	1	50%	2
Rhinar	1	1	50%	2
Arakni, Web of Deceit	1	0	100%	1
Dorinthea	1	0	100%	1
Florian	1	0	100%	1
Lexi	1	0	100%	1
Valda Brightaxe	1	0	100%	1