Ran Sasaki — Aurora, Shooting Star

Ran Sasaki

Aurora, Shooting Star · Classic Constructed

22-22

Record

50.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

95%

Meta

-1.7

Perf Δ

21.7

Surprise

10.1

Difficulty

Top 8

Top 8 Battle Hardened Kuala Lumpur Malaysia '24

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Calling: London

Calling • April 12-13, 2025 • dropped • 3-3

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kai Le Phelps (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025

Battle Hardened • March 16, 2025 • 48th • 3-4

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs syun suzuki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong)

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Calling: Kobe 2025

Calling • March 15-16, 2025 • dropped • 3-4

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YE MINSHENG (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuaki Fujimoto (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Battle Hardened: Kuala Lumpur 2024

Battle Hardened • December 8, 2024 • 5th • 5-3

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Denny Koh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aimran Kamarul Bahrin (Viserai, Rune Blood)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonard Foo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fu Kah Deng (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs bill huynh (Viserai, Rune Blood)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jamal Armand (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nova Chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.53
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Calling: Kuala Lumpur 2024

Calling • December 7-8, 2024 • dropped • 3-4

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fu Kah Deng (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Asyraf Noor (Aurora, Shooting Star)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kiran Ganesan (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vivat Chotpurephong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lim Thomas Sheng Wang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Banco Lo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

World Championship: Osaka

World Championship • November 1-3, 2024 • 110th • 5-4

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kuan Li (Viserai, Rune Blood)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Muhamad Agus Suriyanto (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.38
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.98
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Aurora, Shooting Star	4	6	40%	10
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	3	2	60%	5
Nuu, Alluring Desire	3	2	60%	5
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	2	2	50%	4
Viserai, Rune Blood	3	0	100%	3
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	1	2	33%	3
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	1	1	50%	2
Ira, Scarlet Revenger	0	2	0%	2
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	0	1	0%	1
Dash I/O	0	1	0%	1
Dorinthea Ironsong	0	1	0%	1
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	1	0	100%	1
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	1	0	100%	1
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	1	0	100%	1
Unknown	1	0	100%	1
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	0	1	0%	1
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	1	0	100%	1
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	0	1	0%	1