Lucas Izumi — Aurora, Shooting Star

Lucas Izumi

Aurora, Shooting Star · Classic Constructed

14-14

Record

50.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

89%

Meta

-1.4

Perf Δ

13.3

Surprise

5.9

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Calling: London

Calling • April 12-13, 2025 • dropped • 5-4

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shaun Eaglesham (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Edward Catling (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adrián Marín (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David McAllan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Pro Tour: London

Pro Tour • April 11-13, 2025 • dropped • 1-4

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025

Battle Hardened • March TBD, 2025 • 28th • 4-3

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs João Pereira (Unknown)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rodolfo Xavier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cristiano Amaral (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Calling: São Paulo 2025

Calling • March 22-23, 2025 • dropped • 4-3

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Perego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Miranda (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuri Sacchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Aurora, Shooting Star	1	5	17%	6
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	1	2	33%	3
Ira, Scarlet Revenger	3	0	100%	3
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	3	0	100%	3
Dash I/O	0	2	0%	2
Prism, Awakener of Sol	0	2	0%	2
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	1	0	100%	1
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	0	100%	1
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	1	0	100%	1
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	0	1	0%	1
Fang, Dracai of Blades	1	0	100%	1
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	0	1	0%	1
Unknown	1	0	100%	1
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	1	0	100%	1
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	0	1	0%	1