Timothy Long — Arakni, Marionette

Timothy Long

Arakni, Marionette · Classic Constructed

23-15

Record

60.5%

Win %

Events

Rounds

50%

Meta

+4.7

Perf Δ

19.8

Surprise

16.2

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Pro Tour • July 17th-19th, 2026 • dropped • 3-3

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robin Andrews (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Diego Gonzalez Vilas (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.62
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.03
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

US National Championship 2026

National Championship • June 12th-14th, 2026 • dropped • 2-3

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Riley Thomas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Scott Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.87
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Calling: Columbus 2026

Calling • January 17th-18th, 2026 • 31st • 8-4

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Huntsman)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.60
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.14

Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Battle Hardened • June 8th, 2025 • dropped • 4-2

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.26
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

US National Championship 2025

National Championship • June 6th-8th, 2025 • 21st • 6-3

33%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

6.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

35:65

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.24
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.52
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.64
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.41
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.52

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	4	2	67%	6
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	4	2	67%	6
Prism, Awakener of Sol	3	1	75%	4
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	2	33%	3
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	2	1	67%	3
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	1	1	50%	2
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	1	1	50%	2
Arakni, Huntsman	1	0	100%	1
Arakni, Marionette	1	0	100%	1
Dash I/O	1	0	100%	1
Fang, Dracai of Blades	0	1	0%	1
Kassai of the Golden Sand	1	0	100%	1
Katsu, the Wanderer	0	1	0%	1
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	1	0	100%	1
Nuu, Alluring Desire	1	0	100%	1
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	0	1	0%	1
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	0	1	0%	1
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	0	1	0%	1
Vynnset, Iron Maiden	1	0	100%	1