Nathan Crawford — Briar, Warden of Thorns

Nathan Crawford

Briar, Warden of Thorns · Classic Constructed

19-6

Record

76.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

64%

Meta

+6.6

Perf Δ

11.4

Surprise

13.9

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

United States National Championship

National Championship • August 25-27, 2023 • 40th • 7-1

50%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

7.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Kurka (Bravo, Showstopper)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Briar, Warden of Thorns)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs David Sitrick (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns)

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.71
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.77

Calling - Pro Tour: Baltimore

Calling • April 28-30, 2023 • 15th • 10-3

69%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Irons (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Mellina (Bravo, Showstopper)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jamie Utley (Bravo, Showstopper)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs anthony Petrillo (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Martin Schelasin (Bravo, Showstopper)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Brandon Bianco (Dromai, Ash Artist)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.17
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.21
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.58
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Pro Tour: Baltimore

Pro Tour • April 28-30, 2023 • dropped • 2-2

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander, Stormbind)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Briar, Warden of Thorns)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Lexi, Livewire	4	3	57%	7
Bravo, Showstopper	4	0	100%	4
Briar, Warden of Thorns	3	0	100%	3
Dromai, Ash Artist	2	0	100%	2
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	0	100%	1
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	1	0	100%	1
Dorinthea Ironsong	1	0	100%	1
Iyslander, Stormbind	0	1	0%	1
Katsu, the Wanderer	1	0	100%	1
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	1	0	100%	1
Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	0	1	0%	1
Unknown	1	0	100%	1
Viserai, Rune Blood	0	1	0%	1