Michael Clair — Arakni, Marionette

Michael Clair

Arakni, Marionette · Classic Constructed

25-16

Record

61.0%

Win %

Events

Rounds

54%

Meta

+4.8

Perf Δ

19.5

Surprise

12.2

Difficulty

Tip: Click any event row to see round-by-round calculations

US National Championship 2026

National Championship • June 12th-14th, 2026 • dropped • 1-3

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mel Falcon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Giuliani (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Calling: Columbus 2026

Calling • January 17th-18th, 2026 • 32nd • 8-4

58%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Fang, Dracai of Blades)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.09
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Calling: Seattle

Calling • December 13th-14th, 2025 • 21st • 8-4

58%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Snow (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Arakni, Marionette)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Avery Myles (Arakni, Marionette)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.60
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Battle Hardened • June 8th, 2025 • 17th • 7-2

44%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ted Chang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.62
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed

Calling • January 31-February 1, 2025 • dropped • 1-3

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Walker Roberts (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Matchup Breakdown

Hero	W	L	Win%	Matches
Arakni, Marionette	4	1	80%	5
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	4	1	80%	5
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	3	2	60%	5
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	3	1	75%	4
Prism, Awakener of Sol	2	1	67%	3
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	1	1	50%	2
Nuu, Alluring Desire	0	2	0%	2
Arakni, Huntsman	1	0	100%	1
Azalea, Ace in the Hole	1	0	100%	1
Dash I/O	0	1	0%	1
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	0	1	0%	1
Fang, Dracai of Blades	1	0	100%	1
Ira, Scarlet Revenger	1	0	100%	1
Jarl Vetreiði	1	0	100%	1
Kano, Dracai of Aether	0	1	0%	1
Katsu, the Wanderer	0	1	0%	1
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	1	0	100%	1
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	1	0	100%	1
Puffin, Hightail	1	0	100%	1
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	0	1	0%	1
Viserai, Rune Blood	0	1	0%	1
Zen, Tamer of Purpose	0	1	0%	1